Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock

Coming on the heels of Rasmussen's shocking Kentucky Senate poll the other day, Ras now shows strength in Mississippi, showing the Travis Childers' win earlier this month, and my personal believe that Mississippi is a blue state in waiting, unlike it's neighboring states, is not a fluke.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/mississippi/election_2008_m ississippi_senate

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/mississippi/mississippi_sen ate_musgrove_d_47_wicker_r_46

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/mississippi/election_2 008_mississippi_presidential_election

First, Thad Cochran is not in a close race, leading perennial candidate Erik Fleming 58%-35%.

However, Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove has a one point lead over Senator Roger Wicker 47%-46% in the other Senate race in Mississippi. A recent internal poll had Musgrove up and another poll had the race close. The truth is confirmed here that this race is definitely a key race. It's winnable and the GOP will have to spend money in MISSISSIPPI

...BECAUSE...

Barack Obama is only trailing John McCain by 6 points in a state Bush won by 20%.

McCain leads Obama 50%-44%. Rasmussen has African-American turnout at a realistic 36%.

A bone for Clinton supporters, she only trails by 10...48%-38%, which is still better than how Democrats have been doing there recently.

Mississippi seems to have a real disconnect from next door Alabama, where both Clinton and Obama get beat big and Jeff Sessions is a shoe in for reelection.



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Nice! I am so very excited for dem prospects (none / 0)

in the fall! Especially senate and house! President unfortunately I see as more competitive becuase McCain is strong, but even there i think we win big!


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:24:48 PM EST

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (2.00 / 3)

"Every District, Every State"
Dr. Howard Dean...DNC Chair
"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:25:33 PM EST

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Oh Man, this is great news.  I would love to see Obama take the state were Regan started his campaign for the '80 election.


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:33:15 PM EST

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

sorry to burst you bubble but that would not be happening.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:35:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this the same crystal ball you used (none / 0)

when predicting Clinton would be the nominee?


should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?
by Firewall on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No one is predicting that. (none / 0)

I am a native Southerner, and I expect to see the South turn blue, but I also expect to be a very very old man by that time.  Too many racist Bible-thumper fundies have to die for that to happen...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (2.00 / 2)

I agree.  It probably won't happen this cycle.

But, a closer race will force the Republicans to spend money in what has been a solidly red state.

Money they might not have.


by emptythreatsfarm on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

They are not going to spend much if any resources in Missisipi because its just not going to go democrat with either Clinton or Obama.

Obama himself would probably not spend anytime there.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (2.00 / 2)

Link?

Evidence?

Tarot card reading?


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:43:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (2.00 / 2)

They will because it forces the Republicans to do so.

See this is why I don't support Hillary's idea for the GE. She wants to focus everything on Ohio and Florida. Do you know what happens then? The Republicans pour everything into Ohio and Florida and we spend all night on election night worrying about absentee ballots in Cincinnatti.

Bush won in 2004 because he forced the Democrats to play defense. He forced Kerry to campaign in New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington State, even though he wasn't going to win there. He even forced Kerry to send resources to Hawaii. If we're going to win, we need to force the Republicans to play defense. To win, The RNC has to send resources to places like Mississippi, Colorado, Virginia and Nebraska...even if we don't win there.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:53:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Sure , however Mississippi is not the state to do that.

By all means force them to play in Virginia , CO , NV , IND , WV , KT , NH , IO , NM etc.

But thinking you would force republicans to play defense with Obama/Clinton in Missiisipi seems like a stretch to me.

Mccain isn't their favorite but he would win the state with either of our candidates without expanding too much.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (2.00 / 1)

Alabama is a stretch to me, so is Louisiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho

but not Mississippi, this state has shown some blue trends recently, Dems took back the state Senate in 2007 despite losing statewide. Dems took the MS-01 seat. Musgrove is strong in the Senate race. Kerry won the youth vote in 2004, and Bush's approval rating in Mississippi has been lower than in neighboring states.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

True, but only because the AA population is about the largest in the country.  I expect the first southern state to fall to big D Democracy will be VA (I don't count FL since it is practically a suburb of New York City), followed by NC and LA.  The very last holdouts I predict will be MS, SC and AL.


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They already are... (2.00 / 1)

All those field offices and ground organizers that helped Obama non standard Dem triple bank shot states?

They aren't going anywhere.

Will he be sending the star staffers and field personnel like Paul Tewes to MS?

No.  But they've got a deep team -- back in 2007, everyone laughed at the Obama strategy of locking up the grassroots folks - sneered at running a nationwide campaign.

Will Anita Dunn be crafting a nationwide message to appeal specifically to MS?

No.  But you better believe she'll have communications strategies designed specifically for MS to be deployed on a smaller, local scale... and we won't hear about them on the alphabets or in USAToday.

You need to get out of the old mindset -- it's not about running a 'national campaign' with nothing more than big money, run-of-the-mill, cookie cutter ad buys.

This is going to be a completely different campaign than any we've ever seen before.


by zonk on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:23:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Aw, lori, don't be so negative.  I think we're in for some positive suprises in November when Obama sweeps the map.  But then, I'm an optimist - Even if Obama can't carry the state, Musgrove's got a good shot at the Senate, and the RNC and McCain will be forced to spend their limited resources.  Good News no matter what happens.


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Not being negative , just being realistic .

If Obama is going to expand the map , it would be to the mountain west not dixie and definitely not missisipi.

Yeah we can pick up a senate seat but thats different from the presidential race.

The democrat running for senate could probably even be ore conservative than the republican


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:45:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

I just don't get it. How is dismissing polls realism?


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:47:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Which polls did I dismiss ?

The Rasmussen poll doesn't show him winning , does it ?

So what I am saying is actually borne out by the poll .

However its just the personal opinion of someone who lives next door to Mississippi .

I feel I am not going to out of the limb if I say obama or clinton won't win in the state.

Once again a personal opinion.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The point is (2.00 / 1)

if we ignore polls like this, we're going to spend the entire campaign sending our nominee to blue states to defend

I can guarantee you if McCain was trailing Obama 50%-44% in Connecticut, he'd be making campaign stops in Stamford and West Hartford.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:00:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Sorry, but unless you dismiss the Rasumussen poll, you can't reasonably say Obama CANNOT win there. If its true, we have a tight race here. Its closer than Florida in some polls, one of the so-called key swing states.

And if you are going to be using your personal opinion in your "logical" argument that Clinton is the stronger candidate in the GE then you must claim that your argument is also your opinion.

If your opinion is that Obama cannot win in the deep south. Fine. But stop trying to tell us how it proves he's doomed. You can't prove anything based on your opinion.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:07:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

you would have to point out where I said he is doomed ?

You are hyperventilating a bit.

Obama I expect would compete better in the Mountain west and he has a strong shot in CO , NV and a couple more states which makes him to be the favorite to be the next president.

However I really don't think I am saying anything controversial if I say Clinton/Obama would not win Mississippi , its almost like saying Rick Santorium can win Oregon.

The values are totally out of sync.

By the way most folks here when they post comments are probably expressing their personal opinions


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

Sorry, I guess I mistook you for the many here who not only argue that he cannot win the south, but that he also wont be competitive in CO, MT, NE, ND, AK, etc., despite the evidence.

Saying that the "values" are out of sync seems to refer to the state as if it is monolithic. Sure, the white voters there are very conservative for the most part. But I have the same problem when people dismiss my state, GA, as too conservative. The south has liberals too. And we also have moderates. So while the winners of our elections may represent our state as very conservative, there are many people from all ideologies here, as in the rest of the south. The trick is to out vote the other guys. More energy on our side means we can come out in larger numbers. That, combined with conservatives who also want to end the war, can make a state apparently backwards values into a blue state, even if it is just temporary.

And obviously these are all our opinions. But a lot of the diaries attempt to "prove" that Clinton is the stronger candidate by mixing actually evidence (poll results, past results, etc.) with their own feelings that we should dismiss states on a whim. I have a problem with that being passed off as a real analysis.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:49:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

He'd certainly be conservative, but he'd vote for Reid, and help get the 60+ majority we need in the Senate.  Obama polling well there will force Republicans to commit resources.

Glad you think he'd expand the map elesewhere, though!


by NewOaklandDem on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

We can win Mississippi. Down only 6 points, look at this:
Fifty percent (50%) of Mississippi voters say it is more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War. Forty-five percent (45%) hold the opposite view and say winning the war is more important [...] 52% believe a President Obama would get his troops home within a year while 42% say the same would happen with McCain as President.

50% of voters want us to leave Iraq, and 42% believe McCain will do it! If we can successfully convince voters that Obama and only Obama will get us out of Iraq, the 25% (or so) of white voters we need to win MS is not too far off.

Ok, now, everyone tell me how impossible it is to win MS. Its too red. I must be naive, insane, dumb. How can I believe this poll? It must be an outlier right (well, no)!


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:39:43 PM EST

Mississippi is another example that (none / 0)

Obama's win in MS means nothing in November - it will go to McCain anyway.
Swing states will make a difference, like FL, WV, AR, KY - means Hillary should be a nominee
Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:46:35 PM EST

Re: Mississippi is another example that (none / 0)

Again... where are you getting this inside information?

Y'all claim to be realistic, yet you are just refusing to look at poll numbers. You are refusing to look at scenarios where Obama can win. What if there was a huge influx of blacks into MS and they made up 50% of the electorate? Would you still say then that Obama couldn't win because its too much of a red state?

I understand that you think getting 5-10% more white voters and a significant increase in black voter turnout is unlikely, but what evidence do you have to back up your claim of "reality"?


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mississippi is another example that (none / 0)

ANY state can be a swing state under the right circumstances.  All right, maybe not Utah and maybe not Wasshington, D.C., but people get so hung up on the whole "Ohio, Pennsyvania, Michigan, Florida... are the REAL swing states and we should forget about anything else" line.
I'm sick of hearing about Florida and Ohio. I'm sick of hearing about Pennsylvania, and I grew up in Pennsylvania.
There are more ways to come up with 270 electoral votes than to win all the states Kerry won and then pick up Ohio or Florida.
We're wasting chances to win a blowout thinking like this.
We can take all the 2004 states and then work on taking, say, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa (which we really should have won in 2004), New Mexico, Montana, North Carolina, maybe North Dakota, maybe Nebraska, maybe Indidana, and maybe even states like Georgia and South Carolina and Texas and Louisiana and Tennessee, and, yes, Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia.
Now I know full well that we won't win all of those states. But we can threaten the Republicans badly enough in so many that we'll make them spend money they can ill afford to to keep them red. We have more money this time, better organization than we've had in who knows how long, and a better candidate (with Obama).
We should work ALL of those states, and we can win a bunch oof them. The ones we don't win, well, we can narrow the gap and help out candidates down the ticket.
This is a big year; we have to think big. We saw how well thinking small worked last time in 2004. I'm sick of working toward 50% + 1. We can cripple the Republicans for the next 10 years, and force them to clean up their own house. If we're really lucky, they'll do something to get rid of the Christian sharia crowd and the unreconstructed racists and the "let's drown the government in the bathtub" goons, and maybe we'll have an opposition party we can work with someday.
Now I know that all might not happen; but my point is that it'll NEVER happen if we don't begin to take some real chances here. We need to stick our necks out a little.
Working to WIN Mississippi is one way to do that.
ооо
by Mumphrey on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe it's about Katrina (none / 0)

Remember Katrina hit Mississippi as well as New Orleans.  Even though Mississippi got more help because of Gov. Haley Barbour' pipeline to the White House, it still sat for weeks with nothing from the Feds coming in. Pure Bush incompetence.

So the GOP brand may be a little suspect even with diehard Rep. voters right now.


by spoot on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:07:42 PM EST

Mississippi (none / 0)

was, I believe, the only Deep South state (I'm excluding Florida) where Kerry won the youth vote...and he won it pretty big.

I get the sense things are changing in Mississippi and Katrina may have made things worse for the Republicans.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:18:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The difference b/w Alabama and Miss (2.00 / 1)

i think alabama got lost in the super tuesday pile-up while mississippie had a primary day all to themselves and the attention of both candidates which led them to campaign actively throughout the state. their strength in the polls maybe a residual effect of the primary.


by darwinism on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:11:12 PM EST

Re: Mississippi Polling Continues to Shock (none / 0)

This is really good news.  I doubt Obama can win here this cycle, but in terms of winning down-ticket it would be huge to have a Democratic presidential candidate come close.  If Obama loses by, say, five points in November, I can't imagine us not winning this Senate seat.  


by HSTruman on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:18:28 PM EST

Re: Mississippi Demographics (none / 0)

According to the 2004 CNN exit poll of Mississippi, John Kerry won 63% of voters under age 30. So if voters who are now 18, 19, 20, and 21 are like the older twentysomethings, the Democrats are gaining young voters by about two to one.

Meanwhile, the exit poll said Bush got 75% of MS voters over age 65. Annual voter mortality is estimated as about 1.25%, and naturally, the impact is greatest on older voters. Back of the envelope, Bush voters have been dying off two or three times as fast as Kerry voters.

Add to that a few thousand black voters refugees from N'awlins, and the higher population growth rate among blacks in the state -- the demographic trends all favor the Democrats.

And to be fair to the white voters, racism just ain't what it used to be down South. Not sure we can take Mississippi this time, but looks like it's worth a try.


by Woody on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:43:32 PM EST


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