KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll

A week or so ago I blogged about a Mississippi Senate internal poll that showed the race competitive, with Ronnie Musgrove, the Democrat, leading Republican Roger Wicker.

Now comes this Rasmussen poll out of Kentucky that shows Democrat Bruce Lunsford AHEAD of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

You heard that right!

Rasmussem:

Lunsford- 49%
McConnell- 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kent ucky_senate

Alright, discuss (and please, no "Obama will kill Lunsford" crap. If it didn't work for Greg Davis in MS-01, it's not going to work here)



Display:


Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (2.00 / 1)

Excellent.

We're going to get a filibuster-proof majority in 2008, and the Republicans won't know what hit them.

I'd call it a veto-proof majority, because I'm almost hopeful we'll get there, but since John McCain has a snowflake's chance in hell of winning the Presidency, I doubt we'll really need to worry about overriding any vetoes.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:10:04 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

I don't think you should count on a DINO to be part of a "filibuster-proof" or "veto-proof" majority if he's voting with the conservatives on many key issues.

The biggest thing about this is that it would get one of the most powerful GOP Senators out of office and leave the whole party with a great deal of egg on its face.

There's still a long way to go in this one...


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue May 27, 2008 at 11:24:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

I don't exactly have my ear to the ground when it comes to Kentucky politics, but from all I've read...  If you can say anything bad about Bruce Lunsford, it is that he is a political opportunist.  He'll blow with the wind--and, at the moment, the wind is blowing in our direction.

Given the choice between that and Mitch McConnell, who is a thoroughly committed dead-ender, I know which I'd choose.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

I certainly don't disagree with that - Lunsford is a MAJOR improvement over McConnell in every respect.  All I'm saying is that it's probably not the best idea to count on Lunsford as part of a 60 member coalition to override controversial progressive vetoes or block filibusters.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

Well if that's so, then hopefully we wind up with 62, so we don't have to rely on Lunsford or Lieberman, either of them.


Proud member of the Wikipedia Generation of American politics
by BishopRook on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

Wow!  Ok, I'll give the Clintonites credit that she might have positive coattails in this race... unfortunately, Lunsford is a Republican who switched to Democrat to try and get elected, so he would be the bluest of blue dogs, and not much of a progressive (if at all), but a Senate seat is a senate seat!

Republicans must be in REAL trouble!  Most right wingers are pretty happy with McConnel's obstructionist performance, but even Tom Coburn just had an article in the WSJ saying that Republicans are fooling themselves if they think they can so anything this year.  Let's try and win this one!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:21:10 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

I would expect very little from Lunsford as far as progressivism should he be elected, but the fact that the race is even competitive means the GOP will have to sink money into it. And a Lunsford win would be especially demoralizing--the same way losing our minority leader in 2004 was.

Even if Lunford can just keep the race close, it will yield a ton of negative coverage for the repugs: "The GOP is in so much trouble that even an institution like Mitch McConnell may lose!"


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue May 27, 2008 at 11:15:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (2.00 / 1)

CQ has McConnell as "GOP favored" while Cook Report has his seat as "safe" for the GOP. If this is what safe looks like, I'd hate to be any GOP senator up for reelection this term...


by Hammy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:37:39 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

Good Lord, do I hope the wonderful people of Kentucky pick Bruce Lunsford over Mitch McConnell.  I suppose this is the case of a ham sandwich with a D next to its name being better than McConnell, but there it is.  Admittedly, though, I do worry about some negative Obama coattails in Kentucky.  While I don't know much about the demographic composition of MS-1, it's certainly worth noting that Mississippi, unlike Kentucky, went for Obama by a large margin (61-37) and that Kentucky, unlike Mississippi, went for Clinton by a large margin (65-30).  One can't draw substantive conclusions from primary results and apply them to general election results, but one would think that Obama's result in Kentucky certainly doesn't HELP Lunsford should Obama be the nominee.  And I'm an Obama supporter.  But God help us if Lunsford pulls the kind of crap he did in the gubernatorial race (endorsing Ernie Fletcher over Ben Chandler after Lunsford lost his primary to Chandler) on the national level, and endorses McCain... although, I'm sure that if he were to do so, Chuck Schumer would literally strangle him.


When I grow up, I want to be a superdelegate!
by robitude on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:45:07 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (2.00 / 1)

Guys, nobody's taken a shot at Lunsford yet.  Let's just say the ads that McConnell's millions will buy will put those numbers back where common sense says they should be.  The only way for Lunsford to counter will be to sink millions of his own money into the race in what will be widely seen as an attempt to buy the seat (which is exactly what it will be).

Trust me, once the opposition takes a few swings at him, he'll fall back to a more realistic level.  Vencor is his albatross, and the stories that will come out of it will probably stun a lot of voters.

So it's possible to win, but these numbers aren't going to hold for long, and they will turn south very fast once the ads start airing.


by Jay R on Tue May 27, 2008 at 10:49:23 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

Obama will kills Lunsford!


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Tue May 27, 2008 at 11:25:24 AM EST

Re: KY-Sen: EARTH SHATTERING new poll (none / 0)

I still don't really like the fact that the unspoken rule against ousting the opposition's party's leader was broken with Daschle.  I wish sometimes we could lead by example and then the GOP would respect the decorum next time around but I know that isn't possible when you run against those that simply want power for the sake of power.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue May 27, 2008 at 11:43:27 AM EST


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